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| Cập nhật ngày: 27/05/2010, 16:27 GMT+7. |
India and Russia show two sides of Wimax debate
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There is still a strong likelihood that all three BWA license
winners will end up using Wimax, especially because they will be under
huge pressure to build out their networks rapidly to address India's
huge lack of broadband capacity - and no commercial TD-LTE equipment
yet exists, except for specialized kit for China Mobile's show network
at Shanghai World Expo.
However, Qualcomm's move has intensified the debate over which
technology will prevail in unpaired TDD spectrum round the world. Bad
timing, then, for Russian Wimax operator Yota to announce it would use
LTE for future build-outs, and eventually overlay its current Wimax
systems in Moscow, St Petersburg and three other cities, which support
about 500,000 users. "The only reasons we are delaying its launch
everywhere is the fact that LTE technology is so new," the company told
Reuters in an email.
Clearwire has also been rumored to be considering a switch to LTE,
though it has been very clear this would not happen until 2012 at the
earliest, if at all. It has a far larger network to convert than Yota
and would risk losing its valuable 4G headstart over Verizon Wireless
and AT&T, should it change technology direction. The main reason
would be if it saw TD-LTE gaining a broader vendor and carrier
ecosystem in future, promoting superior economics, but despite the
hype, that is not a foregone conclusion at all in these early days.
One factor in boosting or diluting confidence in the future of the
TD-LTE platform will certainly be its success or failure in India, one
of the largest markets for wireless broadband. The auction is likely to
drag on for at least two weeks. Day one of bidding ended at INR25.53bn
($501.76m), with the government expecting to raise INR150bn. The
just-ended 3G auction delivered more than twice the anticipated
revenues and the BWA bidders have already gone about 34% over the
reserve price of INR17.5bn. Communications Minister Andimuthu Raja said: "We expect
competition will be as high as that for the 3G." There are 11 bidders
including the main cellcos - Vodafone, Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and
Aircel - plus Qualcomm, Tata Communications, Wimax start-up Augere,
Infotel Broadband Services, Spice ISP, Tikona Digital Networks and
Reliance Wimax.
As just 1% of Indians have internet connections and fewer than
that have broadband, the opportunity is huge, Shobhit Agarwal, director
of Protiviti Consulting, told Reuters. He calculates that an
operator could gain a "decent return" in this price sensitive market
with license fees of 1.5 to two times the starting bid price, if the
subscriber base reaches 100 million by year five or six. Higher license
fees would "stress the business models of the service providers and
have a significant adverse impact on the return numbers," he added, but
given the number of contenders, prices could indeed go very high. Ernst
& Young said it expected prices to reach 3-4 times the base price. www.telecomasia.net
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